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How Much Does Accounts Receivable Insurance Cost?

How Much Does Accounts Receivable Insurance Cost?

Great question! And one that is asked often. The simple answer is…it depends. However, that’s not too helpful in the context of this post.

Let’s break down the factors that influence how much a credit insurance policy can cost.

Factors

    • Policy structure – Whole turnover, named buyer/key account, single buyer.
    • Policy type – Cancelable limits vs. non-cancelable limits.
    • In general, a spread of risk can reduce the premium rate. When there is adverse selection of the accounts receivable (A/R) to insure, the premium rate tends to be higher.
    • Sales volume committed to the policy – Because the majority of policies are priced based on sales, higher forecasted sales typically result in a better premium rate.
    • Retention or deductibles.
    • Amount of approved credit on the policy.
    • Buyer credit quality – It costs more to insure higher-risk debtors.
    • Policy limit of liability – This can also influence cost.

As with other forms of insurance, the best way to determine the policy cost is to obtain multiple quotes. Through the quotation process, the applicant will gain a better understanding of how credit insurers view the risks they are trying to insure and, ultimately, the premium or cost to insure those debtors. There can be significant differences in quotes.

A starting point is the approved coverage limits. Is the insurer willing to approve the requested credit limits on the applicant’s debtors? If coverage isn’t available due to negative information or capacity issues, the cost is almost immaterial regardless of how low the premium is. Initially, it’s essential to ensure the needed coverage is available. If it is, the next step is to negotiate the terms, including policy cost. Through this process, the applicant can secure the best coverage at the most competitive terms. The credit insurance policy must support the business objectives, including fitting within the cost structure.

Interestingly, the policy cost is almost immaterial if the insured/applicant perceives a high likelihood of debtor default. The first question becomes, “Is coverage available?” However, at that point, it’s probably too late to insure the risk. If the applicant knows the debtor is distressed, the insurers likely know this as well and will decline to quote. A good analogy is trying to buy homeowner’s insurance once your house is on fire.

Key takeaway: A number of factors influence policy premium/cost, including committed sales, policy type, spread of risk, and buyer portfolio credit quality.

There is the direct cost of the policy premium, but less obvious are the overall cost reductions associated with relying on a credit insurer to insure receivables:

    • If they make the wrong credit decision, they pay the claim.
    • Requires fewer internal resources to manage credit, thereby reducing expenses.
    • Credit insurers continually manage credit exposure and actively update credit information, helping insureds avoid credit losses.
    • Potentially reduces reserves for bad debt allowance.

Testimonials

Many companies find that accounts receivable insurance adds measurable value to their operations, not just through financial protection but also through peace of mind. Here’s what some of our clients have to say about their experience:

“The Securitas Global team has been fantastic to work with. Their professionalism and commitment set them apart. We value their advice, and the credit insurance solution they provided has not only protected our operations but has also played a key role in helping us grow our business.  Securitas Global is very responsive and will follow through quickly to match the demands of today’s business environment. Highly recommend their services.”

     –Ed Winter – Senior VP, Finance and Administration, Bachmann Industries, Inc.

“Securitas and credit insurance have allowed us to focus on expanding our business with confidenceThey helped Everchem realize that credit insurance isn’t really a cost, but a way to expand business revenues while reducing the risk associated with bringing on new accountsWe were able to bring new customers with more revenues faster than our old model, all the while mitigating our riskAnd unlike our other insurance policies, credit insurance does pay out in bad situations.”

     –David Patten, CEO & CFO, Everchem LLC

 

Conclusion

The cost of accounts receivable insurance is influenced by multiple factors, such as committed sales, policy type, spread of risk, and buyer portfolio credit quality. However, beyond the direct premium cost, the indirect cost savings often offset the expense of the policy. These savings stem from reduced internal resource requirements, proactive credit risk management, and minimized credit losses. Interestingly, cost becomes almost irrelevant when a credit loss is imminent, as insurers are likely to decline coverage for known risks. This is why most insureds (92%–95%) renew their policies year after year—because of the value these policies add to their businesses.

Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions, LLC (“Securitas”) has helped clients develop credit and political risk transfer solutions that provide value on numerous levels. As an independent trade credit and political risk insurance brokerage, Securitas is focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of clients, ensuring a complete understanding of policy wording and delivering excellent responsive service.

Demystifying Accounts Receivable Insurance in 10 Minutes

Demystifying Accounts Receivable Insurance in 10 Minutes

Accounts Receivable insurance is a straightforward concept.  It’s an insurance policy that renews annually.  Key policy terms include the Insured (seller), the insured products / services, terms of sale, any retention and the buyer credit limits (the seller’s customers).  Unlike other forms of insurance, the policy is actively managed.  The policy changes as the Insured’s sales, buyers and credit limits change.      

How does it work?   

    1. Seller receives sales order from buyer 
    2. Seller establishes credit line on the policy (online policy management) 
    3. Seller extends credit to a buyer and ships the products / provides the service 
    4. The buyer has an inability to pay for products / services
    5. The seller files a claim against their insurance policy
    6. The insurance company pays the insured per the policy terms

That’s it.   Accounts Receivable insurance.   

While AR insurance is gaining traction and utilization, most companies are not aware the insurance is available.  First and foremost, most property & casualty brokers do not inform their customers that the insurance exists.  Secondly, and probably more importantly, companies only seek / research a solution when a customer is not paying them.   At this point, its too late to cover the current loss, but the loss could be so painful the business doesn’t want to suffer a future credit loss, so they implement a policy.    

Key Takeaways: 

    • A/R is often the largest asset on the balance sheet
    • The only asset that is uninsured 
    • The likelihood of loss from non-payment of a receivable is greater than some property damages  
    • Can reduce cost of managing credit and making credit decisions 

A credit loss can have significant impact on P & L.   

For example, a credit loss goes right to the bottom line.  A company with 10% profit margin would have to generate $1M additional sales to compensate for $100K credit loss.     

Additionally, a credit insurance policy may help reduce Bad Debt Allowance.  The following video is very informative: 

Source: Simple Explain via YouTube

Because there is wide variation in policy cost and underwriting results our recommendation is to obtain a number of quotes.  The application process is not difficult.  The application includes forecasted sales, any credit losses, your terms of sale, the products / services being sold and usually your top 20 – 25 customers.   

Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions, LLC (“Securitas”) has helped clients develop credit and political risk transfer solutions that provide value on numerous levels. As an independent trade credit and political risk insurance brokerage, Securitas is focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of clients, ensuring a complete understanding of policy wording and delivering excellent responsive service.

Tupperware Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Tupperware Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Tupperware, known worldwide for its iconic plastic food storage containers, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Years of declining sales, a failing business model, and a tough economy finally forced the company to file for Chapter 11 reorganization. 

 

Why Tupperware’s Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Matters for Creditors

Tupperware’s liabilities are estimated between $1 billion and $10 billion. Compare that to its assets of only $500 million to $1 billion. This bankruptcy process aims to help Tupperware reorganize, but what does that mean for those waiting to be paid? 

 

By the Numbers

Here’s a snapshot of what Tupperware owes to its top 30 unsecured creditors: 

Creditor  Unsecured Claim Amount (USD) 
CHANG TSI AND PARTNERS LIMITED  $1,213,191.20 
BDO USA, LLP  $1,067,204.15 
FTI CONSULTING TECHNOLOGY LLC  $659,467.50 
SADA SYSTEMS INC  $593,548.88 
FM POLSKA SP ZOO  $570,438.12 
ORACLE AMERICA INC  $550,000.00 
   
Total  $10,078,920.47 

Unsecured Creditors in Tupperware Chapter 11 Bankruptcy: What to Expect

In a Chapter 11 case, unsecured creditors are often at the bottom of the payment list. Recovering anything can feel like a long shot. But that’s where a strategic partner, like Securitas Global Risk Solutions, can make a real difference. Learn more about unsecured creditors from Investopedia. 

 

How Securitas Global Risk Solutions Helps

  1. Reducing Risk: Securitas Global Risk Solutions specializes in trade credit insurance, which protects suppliers from non-payment risks. 
  2. Improving Future Deals: Going forward, suppliers and vendors can protect themselves by using our services to insure future credit exposures. This way, if Tupperware (or any other customer) falters again, they won’t be left empty-handed. 
  3. Expedited Claims Support: As experts, we help creditors understand and expedite insurance claims, maximizing their recoveries in non-payment scenarios. 

The Path Forward for Tupperware

For Tupperware, Chapter 11 is a chance to reorganize, cut costs, and—hopefully—emerge as a more agile, tech-driven company. Laurie Ann Goldman, President and CEO, hopes the process will help the company “transform into a digital-first, technology-led company.” 

But for unsecured creditors, that’s little comfort. They need protection now and in the future. Partnering with a reliable broker like Securitas Global Risk Solutions ensures that, even when the unexpected happens, they get paid. 

How to Protect Your Business from Bankruptcy Risks

The Tupperware saga is a cautionary tale. As creditors navigate this complex bankruptcy, having the right protections in place isn’t just smart—it’s essential. 

If you’re a supplier dealing with risky contracts, consider securing your payments through trade credit insurance from Securitas Global Risk Solutions. Because when companies go bust, you shouldn’t go down with them. 

 

Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions, LLC (“Securitas”) has helped clients develop credit and political risk transfer solutions that provide value on numerous levels. As an independent trade credit and political risk insurance brokerage, Securitas is focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of clients, ensuring a complete understanding of policy wording and delivering excellent responsive service.

The Impact of a Credit Loss on a Company’s Financial Performance

The Impact of a Credit Loss on a Company’s Financial Performance

Credit losses can have a significant impact on a company’s financial health. When a client fails to pay, the effect can be seen on both the income statement and balance sheet. Understanding how these losses affect your financials is crucial for maintaining stability and planning for the future. 

Why Credit Losses Matter

A credit loss occurs when a customer is unable to fulfill their payment obligations, whether due to insolvency, financial hardship, or other factors. The bottom line: When this happens, your company absorbs the loss, which can reduce profitability, strain cash flow, and weaken your financial position. Learn more about credit losses from Journal of Accountancy.

How Credit Losses Impact the Income Statement

The income statement shows your company’s financial performance over a specific period. A credit loss directly impacts your profitability. 

  • Revenue reduction: When an invoice goes unpaid, you don’t receive the expected revenue. This results in a direct hit to your top-line earnings, reducing the total revenue reported. 
  • Increase in expenses: Credit losses often require setting aside funds as “bad debt expense” to cover anticipated non-payments. This increase in expenses lowers your net income, affecting your overall profitability. 
  • Net income drop: The combination of reduced revenue and increased bad debt expenses causes your net income to drop. What you need to know: Credit losses can significantly reduce profitability, even if your sales figures remain strong. 

How Credit Losses Affect the Balance Sheet

The balance sheet provides a snapshot of your company’s financial position at a specific point in time. Here’s how a credit loss impacts it: 

  • Accounts Receivable (A/R): Accounts receivable is the money owed to your company by customers. A credit loss means that certain accounts may need to be written off, reducing the total A/R value on your balance sheet. 
  • Allowance for doubtful accounts: Companies typically set up an allowance for doubtful accounts, which is a contra-asset account that reduces the total value of A/R. Credit losses increase this allowance, reflecting the risk of future uncollected payments. 
  • Shareholders’ equity: As credit losses reduce net income, retained earnings also decline. This weakens the company’s equity position, making it less attractive to investors. 

Be smart: Protecting your company from credit losses with credit insurance can prevent these negative impacts. 

Case Study: ABC Manufacturing’s $100,000 Credit Loss

Let’s explore the impact of a credit loss through the lens of a hypothetical company, ABC Manufacturing. 

Background: ABC Manufacturing supplies industrial equipment to businesses around the world. One of their major clients, XYZ Corp, files for bankruptcy and fails to pay a $100,000 invoice. 

Income Statement Impact: 

  • Revenue loss: ABC Manufacturing must write off the $100,000 as a loss. This means that despite the sale, the revenue won’t be realized, reducing their top-line revenue by $100,000. 
  • Bad debt expense: To account for the loss, ABC also records a bad debt expense of $100,000. This increases their operating expenses, further reducing net income. 

Before the credit loss: 

Revenue: $5,000,000 

Expenses: $3,500,000 

Net Income: $1,500,000 

After the credit loss: 

Revenue: $4,900,000 ($100,000 less) 

Expenses: $3,600,000 ($100,000 added) 

Net Income: $1,300,000 

Balance Sheet Impact: 

  • Accounts receivable: Before the credit loss, ABC Manufacturing’s accounts receivable stood at $500,000. After writing off the XYZ Corp invoice, A/R is reduced to $400,000. 
  • Allowance for doubtful accounts: ABC now has a higher allowance for doubtful accounts, reflecting the increased risk of future non-payments. 
  • Shareholders’ equity: With net income reduced by $200,000, retained earnings drop, and shareholders’ equity declines, weakening ABC’s financial position. 

Before the credit loss: 

Accounts Receivable: $500,000 

Shareholders’ Equity: $2,000,000 

After the credit loss: 

Accounts Receivable: $400,000 

Shareholders’ Equity: $1,800,000 

How to Protect Your Business from Credit Losses

To mitigate the impact of credit losses, companies should implement proactive measures like credit risk management, trade credit insurance, and regular reviews of clients’ financial health. Go deeper: Consider working with a broker to tailor a credit insurance policy that fits your business needs. 

Final Thoughts

Credit losses can quickly undermine a company’s financial health, affecting both the income statement and balance sheet. The bottom line: By understanding the financial impact and taking preventive measures, businesses can safeguard their profitability and maintain strong financial stability. 

 

 

Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions, LLC (“Securitas”) has helped clients develop credit and political risk transfer solutions that provide value on numerous levels. As an independent trade credit and political risk insurance brokerage, Securitas is focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of clients, ensuring a complete understanding of policy wording and delivering excellent responsive service.

The Sudden Bankruptcy Filing of Vital Pharmaceuticals Inc / Bang Energy

The Sudden Bankruptcy Filing of Vital Pharmaceuticals Inc / Bang Energy

Could a Large Manufacturer be a Credit Risk?

Vital Pharmaceuticals is the third largest energy drink manufacturer in the U.S. and owns the Bang Energy brand. Now it is filing bankruptcy in the wake of multiple lost lawsuits, the latest of which awarded $293 million to Monster Energy for its false advertisement of its “Super Creatine” ingredient’s health benefits.  This is one of the largest awards under the Lanham Act. Vital Pharma’s sudden fall into bankruptcy highlights the need for suppliers to consider credit insurance to protect against buyer non-payment and ultimately their balance sheet.  Vital Pharma owed more than $500 million to unsecured creditors.

Vital Pharma Fast Facts and Timeline

  • Vital Pharmaceuticals Inc, a private company, located in Pembroke Pines, FL manufactures and distributes sports supplements under the name VPX, Redline Power Rush, an energy supplement, and Bang Energy, an energy drink.
  • Vital Pharmaceuticals introduced the Bang Energy drink product line in 2012.
  • Bang Energy was marketed as a “performance-enhancing and sports nutrition beverage” due to its “super creatine” ingredient.
  • According to Marketwatch the global energy drink market size was valued at $57 billion in 2021 and expected to reach $75 billion by 2027. Vital Pharmaceuticals / Bang Energy is the third largest energy drink manufacturer behind Red Bull Energy (38% of global market share) and Monster Energy (35% of global market share).
  • Vital Pharmaceuticals recently lost two lawsuits and settled a third which forced them to file for bankruptcy protection.

Key Legal Dispute Dates

  • 2018: Monster Energy Co filed a complaint in U.S. District Court for the Central District of California against Vital Pharmaceuticals, alleging false advertising.
  • 2020: PepsiCo and Bang Energy enter into exclusive distribution agreement
  • 2020: Bang Energy terminated the distribution agreement. PepsiCo sued for breach of contract.  An arbitrator ruled in PepsiCo’s favor that they were still the exclusive distributor.
  • June 2022 Bang Energy CEO Jack Owoc announced that all disputes with PepsiCo had been settled.
  • July 2022: In a separate lawsuit Monster Energy and Orange Bang (a separate beverage company) were awarded $175M through arbitration award for trademark infringement
  • Sept 2022: A jury sided with Monster Energy in its lawsuit against Bang Energy and awarded Monster $293M for false advertising regarding its “super creatine” content.
  • Vital Pharmaceuticals filed for Chap 11 on Oct 10, 2022. The three largest unsecured creditors were:
    • Monster Energy Company – $292,939,761
    • Orange Bang, Inc. – $214,757,614
    • PepsiCo – $115,000,000

Low Credit Risk Until Bankruptcy Filing

Vital Pharmaceuticals was a growing company in the expanding energy drink sector.  There wasn’t any indication, even in late September, that they would file for bankruptcy protection in early October.  Suppliers would have needed to be aware of the status of the lawsuits and the size of the potential jury awards while also reducing credit terms to avoid a loss.  The Schedule F includes a number of large, sophisticated companies extending significant credit to Vital Pharmaceuticals.  It remains to be determined how much, if any, they will recover through the re-organization process.  One supplier, using credit insurance as part of a comprehensive credit risk mitigation strategy, was very thankful that they had a policy in place.  The loss would have had a significant impact on the equity in their business.

Trade Credit Insurance

Trade credit insurance protects suppliers against non-payment due to insolvency and slow-pay.  The Vital Pharmaceuticals bankruptcy filing highlights that even when a buyer appears to be a low credit risk, unseen external factors can substantially increase the buyer’s credit risk. This lack of visibility can expose suppliers to significant credit losses. Even beyond legal liability, other external factors can silently increase the risk of a buyer, such as loss of a significant customer/revenue, loss of financing, change of ownership, etc.

About Securitas

Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions has helped clients develop credit and political risk solutions. As independent trade credit and political risk specialists, we are focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of our clients. Please feel free to call us with any questions, or if we can be of any assistance.

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Inflation expectations yet to decouple from ECB target

Inflation expectations yet to decouple from ECB target

Used with Permission from atradiuscollections.com

Despite rising inflation in the eurozone, we argue it has not yet sprung loose from the ECB target in the medium term

  • Inflation in the eurozone is high and well above the 2% target set by the European Central Bank.
  • The current high inflation rate is to a large extent driven by pandemic-related factors and energy price increases related to the Russia-Ukraine war. We also observe that inflation expectations have not yet decoupled from the ECB’s official target rate. This makes us to believe that inflation will come down in the short term. A simple calculation exercise confirms this picture.
  • We conclude that inflation projections in the medium term have not yet sprung loose from the official ECB target and the current moderate intervention policy appears justified.

ECB ends wait-and-see

 

High inflation is the current hot economic topic. In June, inflation was running at over 11% in the Netherlands; for the eurozone it was nearly 9%, which is surely a record. It is also sure that the inflationary bite is being felt, particularly in the purchasing power of lower income groups. The question is, how long will this high inflation last? In recent months, energy prices have gone through the roof (see figure 1), with geopolitical developments playing a major role. If the pressure on these prices abates, inflation will also ease off. In principle, the monetary authorities should then not need to intervene much, if at all

But the ECB has decided not to wait any longer. In its press conference of 9 June, it announced its intention to raise its policy rates by 0.25% in July, and to end its bond purchasing programme. Moreover, it indicated a further interest rate increase in September, this time of 0.5%. But that will depend on how inflation pans out.

In this article we will look at inflation in the eurozone. Using simple calculations, we will explain how, in our view, the current high level of inflation in the eurozone will not be sustained. The main reason for this view is that a recurrence of the energy price explosion is unlikely. In addition, eurozone unemployment, which is far from negligible (over 7%) is weighing on wage rises, thus limiting second round effects of inflation. In this respect, the ECB acts as a lock on the door. Yes, inflation expectations are rising, but have not yet de-anchored from the official target of 2%.

 

Energy price in HICP index 2015-2022

Major impact of energy price rise

 

Energy prices have played a major role in the high inflation of recent months (figure 2). Yet this accounts for a relatively limited share (11%) of the total price index. However, on a year-on-year basis, the energy component has shot up by as much as 42% in June, which had a very sizeable effect on the total price index. Thus nearly half of HICP inflation in June this year – 4.0% points – can be attributed to higher energy prices. Food (including alcohol and tobacco) accounted for 1.9% points, and core inflation stood at 2.6% points.

Inflation Eurozone (year-on-year change in the monthly index

Instead of looking at the contributions of the components energy, food and core, if we focus on the rise of these individual categories, the numbers are even more spectacular: besides the 42% for energy (year-on-year), we see 8.9% for food and 3.7% for core inflation. Clearly, inflation is not only happening in energy prices, food prices have also risen and even core inflation is currently running well above 2%.

Rising energy and food prices may be regarded as temporary. However, when core inflation goes up, this is a sign that inflation is filtering through to the rest of the economy. Moreover, core inflation has already been above the target rate of 2% since October 2021. This will also have played a part in the ECB’s decision to adjust its inflation expectations upwards for 2022 and 2023. That said, there is still an expectation that inflation will subside, a consideration that is reflected in the moderate extent of ECB’s intervention.

Reasoning for declining inflation

 

Although the ECB has factored in a decline in inflation, it did not give specific reasons for this in its press release. But of course, it has its reasons. We will first look at the arguments in favour of this view. We then present our calculations, based our core argument: a recurrence of the energy price rise is unlikely.

First, underlying factors which have kept inflation moderate in recent decades have not disappeared. At most, they have been somewhat weakened by the pandemic. These factors include (i) globalisation, which weighs on prices thanks to competition from more suppliers; (ii) digitalisation, which makes pricing more transparent; (iii) weak wage growth: from low labour participation, a decline in trade union membership and competition from foreign workers, partly through migration; and (iv) population ageing, which leads to lower aggregate demand as consumer spending declines with age. While globalisation (and migration) may have cooled a little from the pressure of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, a reversal of globalisation would appear to be out of the question.

Second, the rise in inflation from the second half of 2021 was initially triggered mainly by the recovery of economic activity after the pandemic. During the pandemic, aggregate demand was propped up mainly by support from governments. But because services such as hospitality, events and travel were mostly closed, demand shifted to goods such as electronics, household appliances and (outdoor) sports goods. This increased the pressure on the international supply chain, which was reflected in long delivery delays and price increases. There were logjams in transport, particularly in container transport, which also pushed up prices. Now that the pandemic has become more endemic in nature, and most sectors have re-opened, the demand for services will increase. Relative demand for goods will lessen, as will the pressure on international supply and transport chains. Thus one source of inflation will lose its strength. This process will be further reinforced by a decline in demand on the back of reduced purchasing power – itself a direct result of inflation. Early signs of this process are already visible in the easing of supply chain pressure (figure 3).

Eurozone global supply chain pressure index, standard deviation from the average

Third, for future inflation development, it is important that current inflation is sufficiently absorbed by the economic agents to prevent new imbalances in the economy. In this respect, wage development is crucial. It is important that companies are not saddled entirely or largely with the burden of inflation, because they would then set in motion a spiral of price and wage rises. So far, this is not the case in the eurozone. Wage rises remain limited at around 3% (figure 4).

negotiated wages, % year-on-year
This falls well short of the 8% inflation rate and will act as a brake on any tendency of European companies to shore up prices.  In the wage bargaining process, important considerations are the above issues such as unchanged inflationary pressure from underlying factors and easing pressure in the supply chains. The role of the ECB as guardian of the euro also plays a part: do the economic players expect that the ECB will ultimately be able to guarantee price stability through adequate policy response? These elements coalesce in the inflation expectations. Although these have gone up, they do not currently give reason for undue concern (figure 5).
Inflation expectations eurozone
The picture generated by this reasoning is one of inflation that is not sustainable at the current high level. We now substantiate this further with our calculations which are based on a temporary rise in the energy and food indices.

Calculations confirm the picture

 

We calculate the expected inflation from June 2022 to end 2023 in a simple manner. This involves looking at the year-on-year percentage changes in the monthly index – for example the difference between June 2022 and June 2021. We took the following approach.

For the period concerned, we calculated the price index of the components energy, food (including alcohol and tobacco) and core. The basic premise for the development of the indices of energy and food from June 2022, is the average of the rise in the sub-index for the period 2015-2019. Thus our conclusion is that the current state of energy and food price development cannot last. We will explain why.

With regard to the energy prices, we base our view on the underlying reason for the recent price rise: the war in Ukraine, and in particular the ensuing sanctions. These have pushed oil and gas prices to unprecedented heights. However, any further rise would require a second shock, such as major disruption to the Russian oil and gas supply. This could conceivably be an effective boycott of Russian oil or Russia turning off the gas supply to Europe. However, we don’t see this happening yet. True, with its sixth package of sanctions, the EU has aligned with the G7’s oil boycott, but the EU boycott will not take effect for another six months. Moreover, the G7 is working towards limiting the effect of the sanctions on oil prices. Yes, it appears Russia is reducing gas deliveries. But it is highly questionable whether gas deliveries will be fully stopped; it is certainly not in Russia’s interest to lose this easy source of money – especially at current high prices – to fund its war. Russia’s actions in this regard may prolong turbulence on the energy markets. However, we concur with the expectations of the World Bank and the OECD that energy prices will gradually stabilise. The same is true for food prices, with the pressure on supply from the production and delivery problems in Ukraine being absorbed by ramped-up production in other countries, such as the US, Argentina and Brazil.

Expected inflation Eurozone (% m-o-m change index)
Figure 6 shows the result of the calculations: eurozone inflation will have peaked in July this year and the rate will slide gradually until the end of the year, followed by an acceleration of the downward trend from early 2023. This will culminate in inflation of just over 2% by the end of 2023.

Just to give an idea of the effect of the calculation: In June, the energy index stood at 156 and we estimate it to reach 160 by the end of 2023. Food inflation will go from 121 to 124. These numbers represent increases of 2.5% and 2.4% respectively. Our estimates for core inflation are based on a shorter and more recent period, i.e. the average rise of the sub-index from July 2020 to June 2022. We factor in a second round effect of current inflation as well as the underlying (downward) pressure on inflation that we have explained above. For the forecast period until end 2023, the core inflation index will rise from 111 to 114, which represents an increase of 3.3%. To calculate the HICP, we used the weights of the sub-indices from June 2022.

The figure clearly shows that the energy component has an over-sized role in current inflation. This effect is evident from the (expected) energy sub-index, which, according to our calculations will reach 157 in December 2022 – a rise of 26% on the December 2021 index. However, if we look at the index for March 2023 and compare it with March 2022 when it stood at 154, we see a rise, i.e. inflation, of just over 2%. In other words, the inflationary spike of 2022 is matched by its mirror image in a drop in 2023. This is a simple, but powerful mathematical conclusion which does not require any further assumptions. The current high inflation is not here to stay.

Our calculations result in an average HICP of 7.9% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, with core inflation running at 3.6% and 2.9% respectively. This compares with the ECB’s reckoning for HICP of 6.8% and 3.5% respectively for 2022 and 2023 and average core inflation of 3.3% and 2.8%. Thus inflation expectations have not yet sprung loose from the official target rate, and the ECB’s current moderate policy appears justified.

John Lorie, Chief Economist
john.lorie@atradius.com
+31 20 553 3079

Theo Smid, Senior Economist
theo.smid@atradius.com
+31 20 553 2169

Dana Bodnar, Economist
dana.bodnar@atradius.com
+31 20 553 3165

You can read the original article on Atradius’ website at https://atradiuscollections.com/global/reports/economic-research-inflation-expectations-yet-to-decouple-from-ecb-target.html

About Securitas

Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions (“Securitas”) has helped clients worldwide develop credit and political risk transfer solutions that provides value on numerous levels.  As an independent trade credit and political risk insurance brokerage, Securitas is focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of clients, ensuring complete understanding of policy wording and delivering excellent responsive service.

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Office

900 West Valley Road Suite 701, Wayne, PA 19087

Call Us

484-595-0100