Supply Chain Squeeze: May 2026

What Is Causing Supply Chain Disruptions in 2026? 

Supply chain stress is back- and it’s hitting businesses hard. In April 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressures Index surged to 1.82, the highest reading since July 2022. That’s a sharp climb from March’s 0.68, and the largest single-month jump since COVID-19 upended global trade in March 2020. 

The primary driver: the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has brought trade through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill. The Strait is one of the world’s most critical oil and goods corridors, and its disruption is sending energy prices, and operating costs, soaring across industries. 

How Supply Chain Constraints Are Impacting Businesses 

1. Energy Costs Are Spiraling

The energy price shock is nowhere more visible than in aviation. According to Reuters, U.S. airlines spent more than $5 billion on jet fuel in March 2026, a 56% jump from February and 30% more than March 2025. The cost per gallon rose to $3.13, up 74 cents in a single month. Budget carrier Spirit Airlines cited the fuel spike as a key reason it ceased operations entirely in May 2026. 

For businesses relying on air freight or business travel, expect costs to rise. The Wall Street Journal reports that jet fuel price spikes are now alarming White House advisers, underscoring just how broadly the energy shock is being felt. United Airlines has signaled potential fare increases of 15–20%, while international carriers are steeply raising fuel surcharges. 

2. Freight Capacity Is Tightening Fast

Shippers across trucking, ocean, and air are facing what analysts are calling a trilemma: the competing demands of cost control, service reliability, and sustainability. Optimize for any two, and the third suffers. SupplyChainBrain breaks down why the cost-service-sustainability trilemma is unavoidable for shippers in 2026, and why operational efficiency may be the only viable path through it. 

The freight market data reflects this pressure. The Flatbed Outbound Tender Reject Index spiked to 48.74% in March 2026, signaling that carriers have significant leverage over shippers. Truckload costs are projected to climb 16–17% year-over-year. Meanwhile, diesel prices topped $5.40 per gallon in March, the highest since mid-2022. 

3. Inflation Pressures Are Building

The supply chain squeeze is feeding directly into inflation. Economists at Evercore ISI estimate that tariffs, energy costs, and supply chain disruptions together could contribute roughly 50 basis points to underlying inflation by year-end. That’s keeping the Federal Reserve on hold, and possibly pushing it toward rate hikes, as policymakers struggle to contain rising prices without stalling growth. 

What Should Businesses Do Now? 

Understanding the constraints is the first step. Acting on them is the second. Here’s where to focus: 

• Diversify transportation modes. With truckload capacity tight, shifting long-haul lanes (500+ miles) to intermodal rail can cut both cost and carbon output. 
• Lock in contracts early. Spot rate volatility makes long-term agreements more attractive. Carriers are favoring dedicated contracts, and those who wait may face higher spot prices. 
• Build supply chain visibility. Businesses without real-time lane-level data can’t identify inefficiencies or anticipate disruptions. Network visibility is no longer optional, it’s a competitive advantage. 
• Stress-test fuel surcharge exposure. For logistics-intensive businesses, model scenarios where fuel costs remain elevated through Q3. Diversify carrier relationships to avoid over-reliance on any single partner. 

The Bottom Line 

Supply chain constraints in 2026 are not a temporary blip, they reflect the converging pressure of geopolitical conflict, energy volatility, freight capacity shortfalls, and regulatory complexity. Businesses that treat logistics as a strategic function, not a back-office cost, will be better positioned to absorb shocks, protect margins, and serve customers reliably. 

The question isn’t whether your supply chain will face pressure this year. It already is. The question is how prepared you are to manage it. 

Disclaimer 

This blog post is meant to be informative and provide helpful tips and insights into credit insurance policies.  It is not meant to supersede any policy requirements.  Please consult your credit insurance policy for all requirements including claim filing deadlines and required documentation. 

Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions, LLC (“Securitas”) has helped clients develop trade credit and political risk transfer solutions that provide value on numerous levels. As an independent trade credit and political risk insurance brokerage, Securitas is focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of clients, ensuring a complete understanding of policy wording and delivering excellent responsive service.