Summary
- Allianz Trade’s April 2026 Global Insolvency Outlook projects a +6% rise in global business insolvencies in 2026, the fifth consecutive year of increases.
- The Middle East conflict is the primary new shock, responsible for roughly one-third of the 2026 increase and pushing the expected plateau out to 2027.
- For trade creditors, elevated non-payment risk is no longer a post-pandemic anomaly, it is the new baseline.
What the Report Says
Allianz Trade published its latest Global Insolvency Outlook on April 22, 2026, under the title Brace for Middle East Spillovers. The report covers 44 countries representing approximately 85% of global GDP and is one of the most comprehensive forward-looking insolvency datasets available to credit professionals.
The headline finding: global business insolvencies are on track for a fifth consecutive annual increase, with the Global Insolvency Index now sitting 19% above its pre-pandemic average, and forecast to remain 27% above that average even in 2027. The anticipated plateau has been delayed a full year, driven primarily by the energy and supply chain shock from the Middle East conflict.
The report projects 2.2 million jobs directly at risk globally from business insolvencies in 2026, with construction, retail, and services leading the count. On the sector vulnerability side, airlines, transportation, chemicals, and metals are flagged as carrying the most acute exposure to higher oil prices and supply chain disruption, a dynamic that played out in real time with Spirit Airlines’ May 2026 liquidation.
Country-level forecasts vary meaningfully, with the US projected at +9%, Germany and France each at +2%, and China at +9%, while Canada and several Northern European markets are expected to see modest declines.
The report also outlines two additional downside risks beyond the Middle East baseline: a potential AI-driven market correction and fiscal confidence shocks in the Eurozone, either of which could push insolvency volumes materially higher than the current forecast.
Why It Matters for Trade Credit
The Allianz Trade outlook reinforces a theme we have been tracking closely: the pre-2022 credit environment is not coming back anytime soon. Limit-setting and terms decisions that were calibrated to a lower-insolvency world need to reflect the current reality, five consecutive years of rising defaults, sector-specific stress from energy costs, and a supply chain environment that continues to generate domino-effect risk through supplier networks.
We encourage clients and readers to download the full report directly from Allianz Trade for the complete country-by-country forecasts, sector vulnerability heatmaps, and scenario analysis.
Concerned about exposures in your portfolio? Contact Us to discuss how trade credit insurance can help.
Disclaimer
This blog post is meant to be informative and provide helpful tips and insights into credit insurance policies. It is not meant to supersede any policy requirements. Please consult your credit insurance policy for all requirements including claim filing deadlines and required documentation.
Since 2004, Securitas Global Risk Solutions, LLC (“Securitas”) has helped clients develop trade credit and political risk transfer solutions that provide value on numerous levels. As an independent trade credit and political risk insurance brokerage, Securitas is focused on developing comprehensive solutions that meet the needs of clients, ensuring a complete understanding of policy wording and delivering excellent responsive service.
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